IMF economists point out that the world economy has adapted relatively well to the four-fold increase in oil prices in a decade but acknowledge that supply disruptions and a pervasive market fear of long-term scarcity make price spikes higher a constant threat

AS STORM clouds gather over the global economy again at midyear, lower energy prices are one of the few flickering rays of light on the horizon – even if they too look increasingly ephemeral. Economic activity and business and household confidence around the globe has tailed off badly again in the second quarter. The headwinds remain fierce, from imponderables related to the latest wave of the euro crisis and European banks’ retrenchment to US fiscal uncertainty and a spluttering of growth engines in the big emerging economies.